On any given day, the probability that an employee will drive to work is 0.5, the probabilitythat he/she will cycle to work is 0.3 and the probability that he/she will walk to work is 0.2.If he/she drives, the probability that he/she will arrive on time is 0.6 If he/she cycles, theprobability that he/she will arrive on time is 0.8. If he/she walks, the probability thathe/she will arrive on time is 0.9. An employee is selected at random.a) Calculate the probability that the employee will arrive on time for work.b) If the employee has arrived on time for work yesterday. Calculate the probabilitythat he/she walked to work yesterday.c) The employee has not arrived on time for work yesterday. Calculate the probabilitythat he/she walked to work yesterday.
Question
On any given day, the probability that an employee will drive to work is 0.5, the probabilitythat he/she will cycle to work is 0.3 and the probability that he/she will walk to work is 0.2.If he/she drives, the probability that he/she will arrive on time is 0.6 If he/she cycles, theprobability that he/she will arrive on time is 0.8. If he/she walks, the probability thathe/she will arrive on time is 0.9. An employee is selected at random.a) Calculate the probability that the employee will arrive on time for work.b) If the employee has arrived on time for work yesterday. Calculate the probabilitythat he/she walked to work yesterday.c) The employee has not arrived on time for work yesterday. Calculate the probabilitythat he/she walked to work yesterday.
Solution
a) The probability that the employee will arrive on time for work can be calculated by adding the probabilities of each mode of transportation multiplied by the probability of arriving on time with that mode.
- The probability of driving and arriving on time is 0.5 (probability of driving) * 0.6 (probability of arriving on time when driving) = 0.3
- The probability of cycling and arriving on time is 0.3 (probability of cycling) * 0.8 (probability of arriving on time when cycling) = 0.24
- The probability of walking and arriving on time is 0.2 (probability of walking) * 0.9 (probability of arriving on time when walking) = 0.18
Adding these probabilities together gives 0.3 + 0.24 + 0.18 = 0.72. So, the probability that the employee will arrive on time for work is 0.72.
b) If the employee has arrived on time for work yesterday, the probability that he/she walked to work yesterday can be calculated by dividing the probability of walking and arriving on time by the total probability of arriving on time.
So, the probability is 0.18 (probability of walking and arriving on time) / 0.72 (total probability of arriving on time) = 0.25.
c) If the employee has not arrived on time for work yesterday, we first need to calculate the total probability of not arriving on time. This is 1 (total probability) - 0.72 (probability of arriving on time) = 0.28.
The probability of walking and not arriving on time is 0.2 (probability of walking) * 0.1 (probability of not arriving on time when walking) = 0.02.
So, the probability that he/she walked to work yesterday given that he/she did not arrive on time is 0.02 / 0.28 = 0.0714 or approximately 0.07.
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