In 2023 many storms occurred in Auckland and this has been hypothesised to explain the results. 1. If the storms caused a high mortality of the ducks in the traps on Saturday, what assumption has been violated and how would this affect our population estimate? [4 marks] 2. If the storms caused a high mortality of the ducks on Saturday night, what assumption has been violated and how would this affect our population estimate? [4 marks] 3. If the storms caused ducks to fly away and leave the study area on Saturday night, what assumption has been violated and how would this affect our population estimate? [4 marks] 4. If the storms stopped some ducks from being caught over the weekend, what assumption has been violated and how would this affect our population estimate? [4 marks] 5. If the storms changed the re-catchability of ducks on Sunday, what assumption has been violated and how would this affect our population estimate? [4 marks]
Question
In 2023 many storms occurred in Auckland and this has been hypothesised to explain the results.
- If the storms caused a high mortality of the ducks in the traps on Saturday, what assumption has been violated and how would this affect our population estimate? [4 marks]
- If the storms caused a high mortality of the ducks on Saturday night, what assumption has been violated and how would this affect our population estimate? [4 marks]
- If the storms caused ducks to fly away and leave the study area on Saturday night, what assumption has been violated and how would this affect our population estimate? [4 marks]
- If the storms stopped some ducks from being caught over the weekend, what assumption has been violated and how would this affect our population estimate? [4 marks]
- If the storms changed the re-catchability of ducks on Sunday, what assumption has been violated and how would this affect our population estimate? [4 marks]
Solution
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If the storms caused a high mortality of the ducks in the traps on Saturday, the assumption of "no mortality" or "constant survival rate" has been violated. This would likely lead to an underestimation of the population size, as the mortality would reduce the number of ducks available for recapture.
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If the storms caused a high mortality of the ducks on Saturday night, the same assumption of "no mortality" or "constant survival rate" has been violated. This would also likely lead to an underestimation of the population size, as the mortality would reduce the number of ducks available for recapture.
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If the storms caused ducks to fly away and leave the study area on Saturday night, the assumption of "closed population" or "no migration" has been violated. This would likely lead to an overestimation of the population size, as the ducks that left the area would not be available for recapture, making it seem like there are fewer ducks than there actually are.
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If the storms stopped some ducks from being caught over the weekend, the assumption of "equal catchability" has been violated. This would likely lead to an overestimation of the population size, as the ducks that were not caught would not be included in the initial capture count, making it seem like there are more ducks than there actually are.
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If the storms changed the re-catchability of ducks on Sunday, the assumption of "equal catchability" has been violated. This could either lead to an overestimation or underestimation of the population size, depending on whether the storms made it easier or harder to recapture the ducks.
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