Two methods, A and B, are available for teaching a certain industrial skill. There is an 80% chance of successfully learning the skill if method A is used, and a 95% chance of success if method B is used. However, method B is substantially more expensive and is therefore used only 25% of the time (method A is used the other 75% of the time). The following notations are suggested:A—Method A is used.B—Method B is used.L—The skill was learned successfully.Which of the following is the correct representation of the information that is provided to us? P(A) = 0.75, P(B) = 0.25, P(L | A) = 0.80, P(L | B) = 0.95 P(A) = 0.75, P(B) = 0.25, P(A | L) = 0.80, P(B | L) = 0.95 P(A) = 0.75, P(B) = 0.25, P(A and L) = 0.80, P(B and L) = 0.95 P(A | L) = 0.75, P(B | L) = 0.25, P(L | A) = 0.80, P(L | B) = 0.95 P(A and L) = 0.75, P(B and L) = 0.25, P(L | A) = 0.80, P(L | B) = 0.95
Question
Two methods, A and B, are available for teaching a certain industrial skill. There is an 80% chance of successfully learning the skill if method A is used, and a 95% chance of success if method B is used. However, method B is substantially more expensive and is therefore used only 25% of the time (method A is used the other 75% of the time). The following notations are suggested:A—Method A is used.B—Method B is used.L—The skill was learned successfully.Which of the following is the correct representation of the information that is provided to us? P(A) = 0.75, P(B) = 0.25, P(L | A) = 0.80, P(L | B) = 0.95 P(A) = 0.75, P(B) = 0.25, P(A | L) = 0.80, P(B | L) = 0.95 P(A) = 0.75, P(B) = 0.25, P(A and L) = 0.80, P(B and L) = 0.95 P(A | L) = 0.75, P(B | L) = 0.25, P(L | A) = 0.80, P(L | B) = 0.95 P(A and L) = 0.75, P(B and L) = 0.25, P(L | A) = 0.80, P(L | B) = 0.95
Solution
The correct representation of the information provided is: P(A) = 0.75, P(B) = 0.25, P(L | A) = 0.80, P(L | B) = 0.95.
This is because:
P(A) and P(B) represent the probabilities of using method A and method B respectively. As stated in the problem, method A is used 75% of the time and method B is used 25% of the time.
P(L | A) and P(L | B) represent the conditional probabilities of successfully learning the skill given that method A or method B is used. As stated in the problem, there is an 80% chance of successfully learning the skill if method A is used and a 95% chance if method B is used.
Similar Questions
Two methods, A and B, are available for teaching a certain industrial skill. There is an 80% chance of successfully learning the skill if method A is used, and a 95% chance of success if method B is used. However, method B is substantially more expensive and is therefore used only 25% of the time (method A is used the other 75% of the time). The following notations are suggested:A—Method A is used.B—Method B is used.L—The skill was learned successfully.A worker learned the skill successfully. What is the probability that he was taught by method A?
Two methods, A and B, are available for teaching a certain industrial skill. There is an 80% chance of successfully learning the skill if method A is used, and a 95% chance of success if method B is used. However, method B is substantially more expensive and is therefore used only 25% of the time (method A is used the other 75% of the time). The following notations are suggested:A—Method A is used.B—Method B is used.L—The skill was learned successfully.Which of the following is the correct probability tree for this problem?
Two teaching methods, A and B, are implemented for learning Spanish. There is a 70% chance of successfully learning Spanish if method A is used, and a 85% chance of success if method B is used. However, method B is substantially more time consuming and is therefore used only 15% of the time (method A is used the other 85% of the time). The following notations are suggested:A—Method A is used.B—Method B is used.L—Spanish was learned successfully.A person learned Spanish successfully. What is the probability that he was taught by method A? 0.85 * 0.70 = 0.5950 0.70 (0.15 * 0.85)/(0.85 * 0.70 + 0.15 * 0.85) = 0.1765 (0.85 * 0.70)/(0.85 * 0.70 + 0.15 * 0.85) = 0.8235 (0.85 * 0.70)/(0.70 + 0.85) = 0.3839
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