Your task is to select a supplier for each of the ten components, so as to maximise theprobability of a “successful outcome” for APLO’s 30,000 ecological streetlight project inIndonesia.A key indicator of success is the reliability of the streetlights. The ‘reliability’ may be definedas the probability that for a typical streetlight, no component will fail during the five-yearguarantee period.Write an expression for the ‘reliability’ of a typical streetlight in terms of the defect rates foreach of the ten selected components.
Question
Your task is to select a supplier for each of the ten components, so as to maximise theprobability of a “successful outcome” for APLO’s 30,000 ecological streetlight project inIndonesia.A key indicator of success is the reliability of the streetlights. The ‘reliability’ may be definedas the probability that for a typical streetlight, no component will fail during the five-yearguarantee period.Write an expression for the ‘reliability’ of a typical streetlight in terms of the defect rates foreach of the ten selected components.
Solution
The reliability of a typical streetlight can be expressed as the product of the reliability of each of its components. If we define the reliability of a component as 1 minus its defect rate, then the reliability of the streetlight is the product of the reliabilities of its components.
Let's denote the defect rate of component i as d_i. Then the reliability of component i is 1 - d_i.
The reliability of the streetlight, R, is then:
R = (1 - d_1) * (1 - d_2) * (1 - d_3) * ... * (1 - d_10)
This expression assumes that the failure of each component is independent of the others. If this is not the case, the expression for the reliability would be more complex.
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