In the last round of a chess tournament the final match is between Alice and Diego. The winner is the first player to win three games [sometimes called “best of 5”]. Assume that they are equally matched, so that each player has an equal probability of winning each game. What is the probability that the match will be finished after the first 3 games are played? 0.50 0.25 0.20 0.125
Question
In the last round of a chess tournament the final match is between Alice and Diego. The winner is the first player to win three games [sometimes called “best of 5”]. Assume that they are equally matched, so that each player has an equal probability of winning each game. What is the probability that the match will be finished after the first 3 games are played? 0.50 0.25 0.20 0.125
Solution
The probability that the match will be finished after the first 3 games are played is 0.125.
Here's why:
Since Alice and Diego are equally matched, the probability of either player winning a game is 0.5.
For the match to end after 3 games, one player must win all 3 games. The probability of this happening is (0.5) * (0.5) * (0.5) = 0.125.
This must be multiplied by 2 because either Alice or Diego could be the one to win all 3 games. So, the final probability is 2 * 0.125 = 0.25.
However, the question asks for the probability of the match ending after exactly 3 games, not after 3 or fewer games. So, we don't multiply by 2, and the answer is 0.125.
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