Suppose you are managing a portfolio of liability and the predicted the bond yield will slightly increase by 0.1% per year for the coming 10 years. Which trading strategy below would provide you the best outcome?Issue short-term bonds and buy long-term futures.Buy-back long-term bonds or long-term futures.Buy-back short-term bonds and sell long-term futures.Dispose long-term bonds and buy short-term bonds
Question
Suppose you are managing a portfolio of liability and the predicted the bond yield will slightly increase by 0.1% per year for the coming 10 years. Which trading strategy below would provide you the best outcome?Issue short-term bonds and buy long-term futures.Buy-back long-term bonds or long-term futures.Buy-back short-term bonds and sell long-term futures.Dispose long-term bonds and buy short-term bonds
Solution
If bond yields are expected to increase, bond prices will decrease. This is because the fixed interest payments of a bond become less attractive compared to the higher interest rates available in the market, causing the price of the bond to fall.
If you are managing a portfolio of liabilities (i.e., you owe money), you would want to issue or sell bonds now before their prices decrease.
Given that the yield increase is expected to be gradual over the next 10 years, it would be more beneficial to issue short-term bonds now and buy long-term futures. This is because short-term bonds are less sensitive to changes in interest rates compared to long-term bonds. By issuing short-term bonds, you can take advantage of the current higher prices before they decrease.
On the other hand, by buying long-term futures, you can lock in the current lower prices for long-term bonds. When the futures contracts expire in the future, you can buy the long-term bonds at the lower prices specified in the futures contracts, even if their market prices have increased by then.
Therefore, the best trading strategy based on your predictions would be to issue short-term bonds and buy long-term futures. So, the answer is A. Issue short-term bonds and buy long-term futures.
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