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We are given a table with data of 67 members of the US Senate in June 2012 and their affiliated political party and when they are up for reelection.Up for re-election:Democratic PartyRepublican PartyOtherNovember 201420130November 201610240What is the probability that a randomly selected senator is up for reelection in November 2016? What is the probability that a randomly selected senator is a Republican or is up for reelection in November 2014?Suppose that a member of the US Senate is randomly selected. What is the probability that the senator is up for reelection in November 2014, knowing that this senator is a Republican?

Question

We are given a table with data of 67 members of the US Senate in June 2012 and their affiliated political party and when they are up for reelection.Up for re-election:Democratic PartyRepublican PartyOtherNovember 201420130November 201610240What is the probability that a randomly selected senator is up for reelection in November 2016? What is the probability that a randomly selected senator is a Republican or is up for reelection in November 2014?Suppose that a member of the US Senate is randomly selected. What is the probability that the senator is up for reelection in November 2014, knowing that this senator is a Republican?

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Solution

To answer these questions, we need to use the principles of probability.

  1. What is the probability that a randomly selected senator is up for reelection in November 2016?

To find this, we need to divide the number of senators up for reelection in November 2016 by the total number of senators. From the table, we can see that there are 10 Democrats and 24 Republicans up for reelection in November 2016, making a total of 34 senators. The total number of senators is 67. So, the probability is 34/67 = 0.507 (rounded to three decimal places).

  1. What is the probability that a randomly selected senator is a Republican or is up for reelection in November 2014?

For this, we need to find the number of Republicans and the number of senators up for reelection in November 2014, and divide by the total number of senators. There are 30 Republicans and 13 senators up for reelection in November 2014. However, we must be careful not to double count the Republicans who are also up for reelection in November 2014. From the table, we can see that there are 0 Republicans up for reelection in November 2014. So, the probability is (30+13)/67 = 0.642 (rounded to three decimal places).

  1. Suppose that a member of the US Senate is randomly selected. What is the probability that the senator is up for reelection in November 2014, knowing that this senator is a Republican?

This is a conditional probability. We are only considering the Republicans, so the total number of possibilities is the number of Republicans, which is 30. The number of Republicans up for reelection in November 2014 is 0. So, the probability is 0/30 = 0.

This problem has been solved

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Suppose that the handedness of the last 15 U.S. presidents is as follows:(i) 40% were left-handed (L)(ii) 47% were democrats (D)(iii) If a president is left-handed, there is a 13% chance that the president is a Democrat.What is the probability that a randomly chosen U.S. president is left-handed and a democrat? 0.40 * 0.47 = 0.1880 0.40 * 0.13 = 0.0520 0.47 * 0.13 = 0.0611 0.40/0.47 = 0.8510 0.40/0.13 = 3.0769 0.47/0.13 = 3.6154Question 2Select one answer.10 pointsTwo methods, A and B, are available for teaching Spanish. There is a 70% chance of successfully learning Spanish if method A is used, and a 85% chance of success if method B is used. However, method B is substantially more time consuming and is therefore used only 20% of the time (method A is used the other 80% of the time). The following notations are suggested:A—Method A is used.B—Method B is used.L—Spanish was learned successfully.Which of the following is the correct probability tree for this problem?Question 3Select one answer.10 pointsTwo teaching methods, A and B, are implemented for learning Spanish. There is a 70% chance of successfully learning Spanish if method A is used, and a 85% chance of success if method B is used. However, method B is substantially more time consuming and is therefore used only 20% of the time (method A is used the other 80% of the time). The following notations are suggested:A—Method A is used.B—Method B is used.L—Spanish was learned successfully.What is the probability that a randomly chosen person will learn Spanish successfully? P(L) = 0.20 * 0.85 = 0.1700 P(L) = 0.80 * 0.70 = 0.5600 P(L) = 0.80 * 0.70 + 0.20 * 0.85 = 0.7300 P(L) = 0.80 * 0.85 + 0.20 * 0.70 = 0.8200 P(L) = 0.80 * 0.20 + 0.70 * 0.85 = 0.7550Question 4Select one answer.10 pointsTwo methods, A and B, are available for teaching a certain industrial skill. There is an 80% chance of successfully learning the skill if method A is used, and a 95% chance of success if method B is used. However, method B is substantially more expensive and is therefore used only 25% of the time (method A is used the other 75% of the time). The following notations are suggested:A—Method A is used.B—Method B is used.L—The skill was learned successfully.Which of the following is the correct representation of the information that is provided to us? P(A) = 0.75, P(B) = 0.25, P(L | A) = 0.80, P(L | B) = 0.95 P(A) = 0.75, P(B) = 0.25, P(A | L) = 0.80, P(B | L) = 0.95 P(A) = 0.75, P(B) = 0.25, P(A and L) = 0.80, P(B and L) = 0.95 P(A | L) = 0.75, P(B | L) = 0.25, P(L | A) = 0.80, P(L | B) = 0.95 P(A and L) = 0.75, P(B and L) = 0.25, P(L | A) = 0.80, P(L | B) = 0.95

Suppose that the handedness of the last 15 U.S. presidents is as follows:(i) 40% were left-handed (L)(ii) 47% were democrats (D)(iii) If a president is left-handed, there is a 13% chance that the president is a Democrat.What is the probability that a randomly chosen U.S. president is left-handed and a democrat? 0.40 * 0.47 = 0.1880 0.40 * 0.13 = 0.0520 0.47 * 0.13 = 0.0611 0.40/0.47 = 0.8510 0.40/0.13 = 3.0769 0.47/0.13 = 3.6154

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