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Suppose that the federal budget is balanced when GDP is at potential GDP. If equilibrium GDP falls below potential, please explain how and why government transfer payments would change; how and why tax receipts would change; how and why the budget would change.

Question

Suppose that the federal budget is balanced when GDP is at potential GDP. If equilibrium GDP falls below potential, please explain how and why government transfer payments would change; how and why tax receipts would change; how and why the budget would change.

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Solution

When equilibrium GDP falls below potential GDP, it means the economy is in a recession.

  1. Government Transfer Payments: In a recession, more people are likely to be unemployed or underemployed. As a result, the government would increase transfer payments such as unemployment benefits, food stamps, and other forms of welfare to help those affected. This is an automatic stabilizer that helps to increase aggregate demand and move the economy back towards potential GDP.

  2. Tax Receipts: When GDP falls, incomes fall. This means that the amount of income tax collected by the government would decrease. Corporate profits are also likely to fall, leading to a decrease in corporate tax receipts. This decrease in tax receipts is another automatic stabilizer that helps to increase aggregate demand.

  3. Budget: The combination of increased transfer payments and decreased tax receipts would lead to a budget deficit (assuming the government doesn't change its spending in other areas). This is because the government is spending more on transfer payments and receiving less in tax revenue. This deficit spending can help to stimulate the economy and move it back towards potential GDP.

In summary, when equilibrium GDP falls below potential GDP, government transfer payments increase, tax receipts decrease, and the budget moves into a deficit. These changes all work to stimulate aggregate demand and move the economy back towards potential GDP.

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