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The probability is .99 that a 30-year-old man will survive one year. An insurance company offers to sell a man P150,000.00 one-year term life insurance policy at a premium of P2,200.00. What is the company’s expected gain?

Question

The probability is .99 that a 30-year-old man will survive one year. An insurance company offers to sell a man P150,000.00 one-year term life insurance policy at a premium of P2,200.00. What is the company’s expected gain?

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Solution

To calculate the insurance company's expected gain, we need to consider two scenarios: the man surviving the year and the man not surviving the year.

  1. If the man survives the year, the company's gain is the premium of P2,200.00. The probability of this happening is 0.99.

  2. If the man does not survive the year, the company's loss is the payout of the policy (P150,000.00) minus the premium received (P2,200.00), which equals P147,800.00. The probability of this happening is 1 - 0.99 = 0.01.

The expected gain is calculated by multiplying each outcome by its probability and adding these values together.

So, the expected gain is (0.99 * P2,200.00) - (0.01 * P147,800.00) = P2,178.00 - P1,478.00 = P700.00.

Therefore, the company's expected gain from selling this policy is P700.00.

This problem has been solved

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