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The monthly sales of packaged Milo drinks in School of Business canteen follows the normal distribution with a mean of 1,200 packages and a standard deviation of 225 package. The drink stall operator, Mr. Lim would like to establish the amount of inventory levels that he should carry such that there is only a 5% chance of running out of stock. What should the inventory level be set for the packaged milo drinks such that there is only 5% of stock-out?

Question

The monthly sales of packaged Milo drinks in School of Business canteen follows the normal distribution with a mean of 1,200 packages and a standard deviation of 225 package. The drink stall operator, Mr. Lim would like to establish the amount of inventory levels that he should carry such that there is only a 5% chance of running out of stock. What should the inventory level be set for the packaged milo drinks such that there is only 5% of stock-out?

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Solution

To solve this problem, we need to use the concept of z-scores in statistics. A z-score tells us how many standard deviations an element is from the mean. In this case, we want to find the z-score that corresponds to the top 5% of the distribution, because we want to find the point where 95% of the distribution is to the left (i.e., the point where there is only a 5% chance of running out of stock).

The z-score that corresponds to the top 5% of the distribution is approximately 1.645 (you can find this value in a standard z-table or using a calculator that can compute probabilities for the normal distribution).

Next, we use the formula for the z-score, which is:

Z = (X - μ) / σ

where:

  • Z is the z-score,
  • X is the value we're trying to find,
  • μ is the mean, and
  • σ is the standard deviation.

We can rearrange this formula to solve for X:

X = Z * σ + μ

Substituting the given values:

X = 1.645 * 225 + 1200 = 1571.25

So, Mr. Lim should set the inventory level for the packaged Milo drinks at approximately 1571 packages to ensure there is only a 5% chance of running out of stock.

This problem has been solved

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