what is back casting

Backcasting is a planning method that starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect that specified future to the present. The fundamentals of the method were outlined by John B. Robinson from the University of British Columbia in 1990. The fundamental question of backcasting asks: "if we want to attain a certain goal, what actions must be taken to get there?"

While forecasting involves predicting the future based on current trend analysis, backcasting approaches the challenge of discussing the future from the opposite direction.

Here are the steps involved in backcasting:

1. Define a desirable future: The first step in backcasting is to define a desirable future. This could be anything from a company reaching a certain profit margin to a city reducing its carbon emissions by a certain percentage.

2. Analyze the present: The next step is to analyze the present situation and the conditions that exist. This includes understanding the current trends, policies, and other factors that could affect the future.

3. Connect the future and the present: The final step is to create a path that connects the future to the present. This involves identifying the policies, programs, and actions that need to be implemented to reach the defined future.

Backcasting is often used in the field of sustainability to plan for long-term environmental goals. It can also be used in business strategy to envision a successful future for the company.