This is an exciting time for cosmologists: findings are pouring in, ideas are bubbling up, and research to test those ideas is simmering away. But it is also a confusing time. All the ideas under discussion cannot possibly be right; they are not even consistent with one another. How is one to judge the progress? Here is how I go about it. For all the talk of overturned theories, cosmologists have firmly established the foundations of our field. Over the past 70 years we have gathered abundant evidence that our universe is expanding and cooling. First, the light from distant galaxies is shifted towards the red, as it should be if space is expanding and galaxies are pulled away from one another. Second, a sea of thermal radiation fills space, as it should if space used to be denser and hotter. Third, the universe contains large amounts of deuterium and helium, as it should if temperatures were once much higher. Fourth, galaxies billions of years ago look distinctly younger, as they should if they are closer to the time when no galaxies existed. That the universe is expanding and cooling is the essence of the big bang theory. You will notice I have said nothing about an "explosion"- the big bang theory describes how our universe is evolving, not how it began. Our picture of the expansion of the universe is firmly established. The big bang theory is no longer seriously questioned; it fits together too well. Even the most radical alternative - the latest incarnation of the steady state theory - does not dispute that the universe is expanding and cooling. You still hear differences of opinion in cosmology, to be sure, but they concern additions to the established part. For example, we do not know what the universe was doing before it was expanding. A leading theory, inflation, is an attractive addition to the existing ideas, but it lacks support. That is precisely what cosmologists are now seeking. If measurements in progress agree with the unique signatures of inflation, then we will count them as a persuasive argument for this theory. But until that time, I would not settle any bets on whether inflation really happened. I am not criticizing the theory; I simply mean that this is brave, pioneering work still to be tested. More solid is the evidence that most of the mass of the universe consists of dark matter clumped around the outer parts of galaxies. We also have a reasonable case for Einstein's infamous cosmological constant or something similar; it would be the agent of the acceleration that the universe now seems to be undergoing. A decade ago, cosmologists generally welcomed dark matter as an elegant way to account for the motions of stars and gas within galaxies. Most researchers, however, had a real distaste for the cosmological constant. Now the majority accept it, or its allied concept, quintessence. Particle physicists have come to welcome the challenge that the cosmological constant poses for quantum theory. This shift in opinion is not a reflection of some inherent weakness; rather it shows the subject in a healthy state of chaos around a slowly growing fixed framework.
Question
This is an exciting time for cosmologists: findings are pouring in, ideas are bubbling up, and research to test those ideas is simmering away. But it is also a confusing time. All the ideas under discussion cannot possibly be right; they are not even consistent with one another. How is one to judge the progress? Here is how I go about it. For all the talk of overturned theories, cosmologists have firmly established the foundations of our field. Over the past 70 years we have gathered abundant evidence that our universe is expanding and cooling. First, the light from distant galaxies is shifted towards the red, as it should be if space is expanding and galaxies are pulled away from one another. Second, a sea of thermal radiation fills space, as it should if space used to be denser and hotter. Third, the universe contains large amounts of deuterium and helium, as it should if temperatures were once much higher. Fourth, galaxies billions of years ago look distinctly younger, as they should if they are closer to the time when no galaxies existed. That the universe is expanding and cooling is the essence of the big bang theory. You will notice I have said nothing about an "explosion"- the big bang theory describes how our universe is evolving, not how it began. Our picture of the expansion of the universe is firmly established. The big bang theory is no longer seriously questioned; it fits together too well. Even the most radical alternative - the latest incarnation of the steady state theory - does not dispute that the universe is expanding and cooling. You still hear differences of opinion in cosmology, to be sure, but they concern additions to the established part. For example, we do not know what the universe was doing before it was expanding. A leading theory, inflation, is an attractive addition to the existing ideas, but it lacks support. That is precisely what cosmologists are now seeking. If measurements in progress agree with the unique signatures of inflation, then we will count them as a persuasive argument for this theory. But until that time, I would not settle any bets on whether inflation really happened. I am not criticizing the theory; I simply mean that this is brave, pioneering work still to be tested. More solid is the evidence that most of the mass of the universe consists of dark matter clumped around the outer parts of galaxies. We also have a reasonable case for Einstein's infamous cosmological constant or something similar; it would be the agent of the acceleration that the universe now seems to be undergoing. A decade ago, cosmologists generally welcomed dark matter as an elegant way to account for the motions of stars and gas within galaxies. Most researchers, however, had a real distaste for the cosmological constant. Now the majority accept it, or its allied concept, quintessence. Particle physicists have come to welcome the challenge that the cosmological constant poses for quantum theory. This shift in opinion is not a reflection of some inherent weakness; rather it shows the subject in a healthy state of chaos around a slowly growing fixed framework.
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