Dougie’s car is worth $10,000. Dougie is a careless fellow who leaves the top down, thekeys in the ignition, and his fanny pack in the front seat. As a result, the probability of his carbeing stolen is 0.3. If his car is stolen, he will never get it back (the fanny pack is a knockoff,assume that it has a value of zero). Dougie has $20,000 in other wealth and his utility functionfor wealth is 𝑢(𝑤) = 2𝑤^0.5. Suppose that Dougie can buy $K worth of insurance at a price of$.35K a) Write down Dougie’s von Neuman-Morgenstern utility function. (u(c1, c2, π1, π2) = π1ν(c1) + π2ν(c2))
Question
Dougie’s car is worth 20,000 in other wealth and his utility functionfor wealth is 𝑢(𝑤) = 2𝑤^0.5. Suppose that Dougie can buy .35K a) Write down Dougie’s von Neuman-Morgenstern utility function. (u(c1, c2, π1, π2) = π1ν(c1) + π2ν(c2))
Solution
Dougie's von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function can be written as follows:
u(c1, c2, π1, π2) = π1ν(c1) + π2ν(c2)
Here, c1 and c2 represent the two possible states of wealth Dougie can have: 20,000 plus the value of his car) and $20,000 if his car is stolen. π1 and π2 are the probabilities of these states occurring, which are 0.7 and 0.3 respectively (since the probability of his car being stolen is 0.3, the probability of it not being stolen is 1 - 0.3 = 0.7).
Dougie's utility function for wealth is given as u(w) = 2w^0.5. We can substitute this into the von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function to get:
u(c1, c2, π1, π2) = 0.7 * 2 * (30000)^0.5 + 0.3 * 2 * (20000)^0.5
This is Dougie's expected utility without insurance. If Dougie decides to buy insurance worth 0.35K, his wealth in the state where his car is not stolen will be 0.35K and his wealth in the state where his car is stolen will be K - $0.35K. His expected utility with insurance can then be calculated as:
u(c1, c2, π1, π2) = 0.7 * 2 * ((30000 - 0.35K)^0.5) + 0.3 * 2 * ((20000 + K - 0.35K)^0.5)
By comparing these two expected utilities, Dougie can decide whether or not to buy the insurance.
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