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Prospect pair 1 -- choose between: W: (0.2, $4000) X: (0.25, $3000) Prospect pair 2 -- choose between: Y: (0.8, $4,000) Z: ($3000) Part (a): What is the expected utility for Prospect pair 1 (X)? (Note: Please enter your answer rounded to the nearest whole dollar. For example, if your answer is $1,234.89, please input 1235 in your answer box.) (1 mark) Part (b): Based on the expected utility theory, which Options (W or X) would you choose for Prospect pair 1? (Note: If your answer is Option W, you only need to input W in your answer box.) (1 mark) Part (c): Ignoring the expected utility theory, would most people choose Options Y or Z from Prospect pair 2? (Note: You only need to input Y or Z in your answer box.) (1 mark) Part (d): Please explain your rationale for your answer in Part (c) in less than 50 words. (2 marks)

Question

Prospect pair 1 -- choose between:

W: (0.2, 4000)X:(0.25,4000) X: (0.25, 3000) Prospect pair 2 -- choose between:

Y: (0.8, 4,000)Z:(4,000) Z: (3000) Part (a): What is the expected utility for Prospect pair 1 (X)? (Note: Please enter your answer rounded to the nearest whole dollar. For example, if your answer is $1,234.89, please input 1235 in your answer box.) (1 mark)

Part (b): Based on the expected utility theory, which Options (W or X) would you choose for Prospect pair 1? (Note: If your answer is Option W, you only need to input W in your answer box.) (1 mark)

Part (c): Ignoring the expected utility theory, would most people choose Options Y or Z from Prospect pair 2? (Note: You only need to input Y or Z in your answer box.) (1 mark)

Part (d): Please explain your rationale for your answer in Part (c) in less than 50 words. (2 marks)

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Solution

Part (a): The expected utility for Prospect pair 1 (X) is calculated by multiplying the probability of the outcome by the value of the outcome. So, for option X, the expected utility is 0.25 * 3000=3000 = 750.

Part (b): According to the expected utility theory, we should choose the option with the highest expected utility. In this case, we don't have the expected utility for option W. However, if the expected utility for option W is less than 750,weshouldchooseoptionX.IftheexpectedutilityforoptionWismorethan750, we should choose option X. If the expected utility for option W is more than 750, we should choose option W.

Part (c): Ignoring the expected utility theory, most people would likely choose option Z from Prospect pair 2. This is because option Z guarantees a certain outcome of 3000,whileoptionYonlyhasan803000, while option Y only has an 80% chance of yielding 4000.

Part (d): People tend to be risk averse, especially when it comes to money. This means that they prefer a certain outcome over a risky one, even if the risky one has a higher expected utility. This is why most people would choose option Z over option Y.

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