The percentage y of mathematicians attending the annual conference “Math-ematics in Economics” can be modelled, as a function of the years t, byy = 50 − A e−at.Given that the percentage of participant mathematicians was 2 at the openingyear, and 5 after 2 years,(a) find the value of A and a, correct to 3 decimal places,(b) predict the percentage of mathematicians after 5 years, and(c) predict the percentage of mathematicians attending the conference inthe long run.
Question
The percentage y of mathematicians attending the annual conference “Math-ematics in Economics” can be modelled, as a function of the years t, byy = 50 − A e−at.Given that the percentage of participant mathematicians was 2 at the openingyear, and 5 after 2 years,(a) find the value of A and a, correct to 3 decimal places,(b) predict the percentage of mathematicians after 5 years, and(c) predict the percentage of mathematicians attending the conference inthe long run.
Solution
(a) To find the values of A and a, we need to use the given information and solve the system of equations.
We know that at the opening year (t=0), the percentage of mathematicians was 2. So, we can plug these values into the equation:
2 = 50 - A * e^(0) => A = 50 - 2 => A = 48
Next, we know that after 2 years (t=2), the percentage of mathematicians was 5. So, we can plug these values into the equation:
5 = 50 - 48 * e^(-2a) => -45 = -48 * e^(-2a) => e^(-2a) = 45/48 => -2a = ln(45/48) => a = -ln(45/48) / 2 => a = 0.031
So, A = 48 and a = 0.031, to 3 decimal places.
(b) To predict the percentage of mathematicians after 5 years, we can plug t=5 into the equation:
y = 50 - 48 * e^(-0.031*5) => y = 50 - 48 * e^(-0.155) => y = 50 - 48 * 0.856 => y = 50 - 41.088 => y = 8.912
So, the model predicts that about 8.912% of mathematicians will attend the conference after 5 years.
(c) In the long run, as t approaches infinity, the term A * e^(-at) will approach 0 because e^(-at) approaches 0. So, the percentage of mathematicians attending the conference in the long run will be:
y = 50 - 0 => y = 50
So, in the long run, the model predicts that 50% of mathematicians will attend the conference.
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