Consider a Dutch investor with 1,000 euros toplace in a bank deposit in either theNetherlands or Great Britain. The (one-year)interest rate on bank deposits is 2% in Britainand 4.04% in the Netherlands. The (one-year)forward euro-pound exchange rate is 1.575euros per pound and the spot rate is 1.5 eurosper pound. Answer the following questions,using the exact equations for UIP and CIP asnecessary.a. What is the euro-denominated return onDutch deposits for this investor?b. What is the (riskless) euro-denominatedreturn on British deposits for this investorusing forward cover?c. Is there an arbitrage opportunity here?Explain why or why not. Is this an equilibri-um in the forward exchange rate market?d. If the spot rate is 1.5 euros per pound, andinterest rates are as stated previously, what isthe equilibrium forward rate, according tocovered interest parity (CIP)?e. Suppose the forward rate takes the valuegiven by your answer to (d). Compute theforward premium on the British pound forthe Dutch investor (where exchange ratesare in euros per pound). Is it positive ornegative? Why do investors require thispremium/discount in equilibrium?f. If uncovered interest parity (UIP) holds,what is the expected depreciation of theeuro (against the pound) over one year?g. Based on your answer to (f), what is theexpected euro-pound exchange rate one yearahead?
Question
Consider a Dutch investor with 1,000 euros toplace in a bank deposit in either theNetherlands or Great Britain. The (one-year)interest rate on bank deposits is 2% in Britainand 4.04% in the Netherlands. The (one-year)forward euro-pound exchange rate is 1.575euros per pound and the spot rate is 1.5 eurosper pound. Answer the following questions,using the exact equations for UIP and CIP asnecessary.a. What is the euro-denominated return onDutch deposits for this investor?b. What is the (riskless) euro-denominatedreturn on British deposits for this investorusing forward cover?c. Is there an arbitrage opportunity here?Explain why or why not. Is this an equilibri-um in the forward exchange rate market?d. If the spot rate is 1.5 euros per pound, andinterest rates are as stated previously, what isthe equilibrium forward rate, according tocovered interest parity (CIP)?e. Suppose the forward rate takes the valuegiven by your answer to (d). Compute theforward premium on the British pound forthe Dutch investor (where exchange ratesare in euros per pound). Is it positive ornegative? Why do investors require thispremium/discount in equilibrium?f. If uncovered interest parity (UIP) holds,what is the expected depreciation of theeuro (against the pound) over one year?g. Based on your answer to (f), what is theexpected euro-pound exchange rate one yearahead?
Solution
a. The euro-denominated return on Dutch deposits for this investor is 4.04%. This is calculated by simply taking the interest rate in the Netherlands, as the investment and return are both in euros.
b. To calculate the euro-denominated return on British deposits for this investor using forward cover, we first need to convert the initial investment to pounds using the spot rate (1000 euros / 1.5 euros per pound = 666.67 pounds). This is then invested at the British interest rate of 2% (666.67 pounds * 1.02 = 680.00 pounds). The return is then converted back to euros using the forward rate (680.00 pounds * 1.575 euros per pound = 1071.00 euros). The return on the investment is therefore 1071.00 euros - 1000 euros = 71.00 euros, or 7.1%.
c. There is no arbitrage opportunity here as the return on the Dutch deposit (4.04%) is less than the return on the British deposit with forward cover (7.1%). This is an equilibrium in the forward exchange rate market as the returns are equal when the risk of exchange rate changes is covered.
d. According to covered interest parity (CIP), the forward rate should be equal to the spot rate multiplied by the ratio of the interest rates in the two countries. Therefore, the equilibrium forward rate is 1.5 euros per pound * (1.0404 / 1.02) = 1.53 euros per pound.
e. The forward premium on the British pound for the Dutch investor is the difference between the forward rate and the spot rate, divided by the spot rate. Therefore, the forward premium is (1.53 euros per pound - 1.5 euros per pound) / 1.5 euros per pound = 0.02, or 2%. This is positive, indicating that the pound is expected to appreciate against the euro. Investors require this premium in equilibrium to compensate for the risk of holding a foreign currency.
f. If uncovered interest parity (UIP) holds, the expected depreciation of the euro against the pound over one year is the difference between the interest rates in the two countries. Therefore, the expected depreciation is 4.04% - 2% = 2.04%.
g. Based on the expected depreciation of the euro, the expected euro-pound exchange rate one year ahead is the current spot rate multiplied by the ratio of 1 plus the interest rates in the two countries. Therefore, the expected exchange rate is 1.5 euros per pound * (1.0204 / 1.0404) = 1.46 euros per pound.
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