According to the official M&M website, 24% of the plain milk chocolate M&M’s produced by Mars Corporation are blue. Annie buys a large family-size bag of M&M's. Sarah buys a small fun-size bag. Which bag is more likely to have more than 40% blue M&M's?

The probability of finding more than 40% blue M&M's in a bag depends on the size of the bag. According to the law of large numbers, the larger the sample size, the closer the sample proportion will get to the population proportion.

In this case, the population proportion of blue M&M's is 24%.

1. If Annie buys a large family-size bag, it means she has a larger sample size. Therefore, the proportion of blue M&M's in her bag is more likely to be close to the population proportion of 24%.

2. On the other hand, Sarah buys a small fun-size bag, which means she has a smaller sample size. The proportion of blue M&M's in her bag could deviate more from the population proportion.

Therefore, it is more likely for Sarah's small fun-size bag to have more than 40% blue M&M's than Annie's large family-size bag.