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Consider a manufacturer of perfume who is about to expand production capacity to make a new product. Three alternative production processes are available. The following table shows the estimated profits (in $) for these processes for each of the three possible demand levels for the product.Alternatives                                             States of NatureLow demand Moderate demand High demandA 100,000 350,000 900,000B 150,000 400,000 700,000C 250,000 400,000 600,000Based on the above information, what would be the amount of regret, if alternative production process B is selected by the manufacturer and suppose that the level of demand turns out to be low?

Question

Consider a manufacturer of perfume who is about to expand production capacity to make a new product. Three alternative production processes are available. The following table shows the estimated profits (in $) for these processes for each of the three possible demand levels for the product.Alternatives                                             States of NatureLow demand Moderate demand High demandA 100,000 350,000 900,000B 150,000 400,000 700,000C 250,000 400,000 600,000Based on the above information, what would be the amount of regret, if alternative production process B is selected by the manufacturer and suppose that the level of demand turns out to be low?

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Solution

The regret is calculated as the difference between the best possible outcome and the actual outcome. In this case, if the manufacturer chooses production process B and the demand turns out to be low, the actual profit would be $150,000.

However, if the manufacturer had chosen production process C, they could have made a profit of 250,000.Therefore,theregretforchoosingproductionprocessBwhenthedemandislowis250,000. Therefore, the regret for choosing production process B when the demand is low is 250,000 - 150,000=150,000 = 100,000.

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