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Gillette Corporation will pay an annual dividend of $0.68 one year from now. Analysts expect this dividend to grow at 11.7% per year thereafter until the 6th year.​ Thereafter, growth will level off at 2.4% per year. According to the​ dividend-discount model, what is the value of a Gillette share if the​ firm's equity cost of capital is 7.5%​?

Question

Gillette Corporation will pay an annual dividend of $0.68 one year from now. Analysts expect this dividend to grow at 11.7% per year thereafter until the 6th year.​ Thereafter, growth will level off at 2.4% per year. According to the​ dividend-discount model, what is the value of a Gillette share if the​ firm's equity cost of capital is 7.5%​?

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Solution

To calculate the value of a Gillette share, we need to use the Gordon Growth Model (also known as the Dividend Discount Model). This model is used to determine the intrinsic value of a stock, based on a future series of dividends that grow at a constant rate.

Given that the dividend is expected to grow at a different rate for the first 6 years, we need to calculate the present value of these dividends separately. After the 6th year, the dividend growth rate levels off at 2.4% and we can use the Gordon Growth Model.

Here are the steps:

  1. Calculate the dividends for the first 6 years:

    • Year 1: $0.68
    • Year 2: 0.68(1+11.70.68 * (1 + 11.7%) = 0.76
    • Year 3: 0.76(1+11.70.76 * (1 + 11.7%) = 0.85
    • Year 4: 0.85(1+11.70.85 * (1 + 11.7%) = 0.95
    • Year 5: 0.95(1+11.70.95 * (1 + 11.7%) = 1.06
    • Year 6: 1.06(1+11.71.06 * (1 + 11.7%) = 1.19
  2. Calculate the present value of these dividends:

    • PV(Year 1) = 0.68/(1+7.50.68 / (1 + 7.5%) = 0.63
    • PV(Year 2) = 0.76/(1+7.50.76 / (1 + 7.5%)^2 = 0.66
    • PV(Year 3) = 0.85/(1+7.50.85 / (1 + 7.5%)^3 = 0.69
    • PV(Year 4) = 0.95/(1+7.50.95 / (1 + 7.5%)^4 = 0.72
    • PV(Year 5) = 1.06/(1+7.51.06 / (1 + 7.5%)^5 = 0.75
    • PV(Year 6) = 1.19/(1+7.51.19 / (1 + 7.5%)^6 = 0.78
  3. Calculate the present value of the dividends from Year 7 onwards using the Gordon Growth Model:

    • D7 = D6 * (1 + 2.4%) = 1.191.024=1.19 * 1.024 = 1.22
    • P7 = D7 / (r - g) = 1.22/(7.51.22 / (7.5% - 2.4%) = 22.22
    • PV(P7) = P7 / (1 + r)^6 = 22.22/(1+7.522.22 / (1 + 7.5%)^6 = 14.57
  4. Add up all the present values to get the intrinsic value of the stock:

    • P0 = PV(Year 1) + PV(Year 2) + PV(Year 3) + PV(Year 4) + PV(Year 5) + PV(Year 6) + PV(P7)
    • P0 = 0.63+0.63 + 0.66 + 0.69+0.69 + 0.72 + 0.75+0.75 + 0.78 + 14.57=14.57 = 18.80

So, according to the dividend-discount model, the value of a Gillette share is approximately $18.80.

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