Which of the following is not true for ARCH(1) model (๐๐๐ก๐ก = ๐๐๐ก๐ก ๐๐๐ก๐ก, ๐๐๐ก๐ก2 = ๐ผ๐ผ0 + ๐ผ๐ผ1 ๐๐๐ก๐กโ12 ), where๐๐๐ก๐ก has mean 0 and variance 1?a. mean ๐ธ๐ธ(๐๐๐ก๐ก) = 0b. variance ๐๐๐๐๐๐(๐๐๐ก๐ก) = ๐ผ๐ผ0/(1 โ ๐ผ๐ผ1) if 0 < ๐ผ๐ผ1 < 1c. generates heavy tails under some parameter conditionsd. generates asymmetry between positive and negative prior returns
Question
Which of the following is not true for ARCH(1) model (๐๐๐ก๐ก = ๐๐๐ก๐ก ๐๐๐ก๐ก, ๐๐๐ก๐ก2 = ๐ผ๐ผ0 + ๐ผ๐ผ1 ๐๐๐ก๐กโ12 ), where๐๐๐ก๐ก has mean 0 and variance 1?a. mean ๐ธ๐ธ(๐๐๐ก๐ก) = 0b. variance ๐๐๐๐๐๐(๐๐๐ก๐ก) = ๐ผ๐ผ0/(1 โ ๐ผ๐ผ1) if 0 < ๐ผ๐ผ1 < 1c. generates heavy tails under some parameter conditionsd. generates asymmetry between positive and negative prior returns
Solution
The ARCH(1) model, or Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model, is a model used in econometrics to capture a type of time-varying volatility. It is defined by the equation ๐๐๐ก๐ก = ๐๐๐ก๐ก ๐๐๐ก๐ก, ๐๐๐ก๐ก2 = ๐ผ๐ผ0 + ๐ผ๐ผ1 ๐๐๐ก๐กโ12, where ๐๐๐ก๐ก is a white noise error term with mean 0 and variance 1.
Let's go through each of the statements:
a. mean ๐ธ๐ธ(๐๐๐ก๐ก) = 0: This is true. The expected value of ๐๐๐ก๐ก is 0 because it is the product of ๐๐๐ก๐ก and ๐๐๐ก๐ก, and ๐๐๐ก๐ก has a mean of 0.
b. variance ๐๐๐๐๐๐(๐๐๐ก๐ก) = ๐ผ๐ผ0/(1 โ ๐ผ๐ผ1) if 0 < ๐ผ๐ผ1 < 1: This is also true. The variance of ๐๐๐ก๐ก is given by this formula under the condition that 0 < ๐ผ๐ผ1 < 1.
c. generates heavy tails under some parameter conditions: This is true. The ARCH model can generate heavy-tailed distributions, which are often observed in financial return data.
d. generates asymmetry between positive and negative prior returns: This is not true. The ARCH model does not generate asymmetry between positive and negative returns. This is a characteristic of the GARCH model with an added leverage effect, not the ARCH model. Therefore, the correct answer is d.
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