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Which of the following is not true for ARCH(1) model (๐‘Ž๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘ก = ๐œŽ๐œŽ๐‘ก๐‘ก ๐œ€๐œ€๐‘ก๐‘ก, ๐œŽ๐œŽ๐‘ก๐‘ก2 = ๐›ผ๐›ผ0 + ๐›ผ๐›ผ1 ๐‘Ž๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘กโˆ’12 ), where๐œ€๐œ€๐‘ก๐‘ก has mean 0 and variance 1?a. mean ๐ธ๐ธ(๐‘Ž๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘ก) = 0b. variance ๐‘‰๐‘‰๐‘Ž๐‘Ž๐‘Ÿ๐‘Ÿ(๐‘Ž๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘ก) = ๐›ผ๐›ผ0/(1 โˆ’ ๐›ผ๐›ผ1) if 0 < ๐›ผ๐›ผ1 < 1c. generates heavy tails under some parameter conditionsd. generates asymmetry between positive and negative prior returns

Question

Which of the following is not true for ARCH(1) model (๐‘Ž๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘ก = ๐œŽ๐œŽ๐‘ก๐‘ก ๐œ€๐œ€๐‘ก๐‘ก, ๐œŽ๐œŽ๐‘ก๐‘ก2 = ๐›ผ๐›ผ0 + ๐›ผ๐›ผ1 ๐‘Ž๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘กโˆ’12 ), where๐œ€๐œ€๐‘ก๐‘ก has mean 0 and variance 1?a. mean ๐ธ๐ธ(๐‘Ž๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘ก) = 0b. variance ๐‘‰๐‘‰๐‘Ž๐‘Ž๐‘Ÿ๐‘Ÿ(๐‘Ž๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘ก) = ๐›ผ๐›ผ0/(1 โˆ’ ๐›ผ๐›ผ1) if 0 < ๐›ผ๐›ผ1 < 1c. generates heavy tails under some parameter conditionsd. generates asymmetry between positive and negative prior returns

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Solution

The ARCH(1) model, or Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model, is a model used in econometrics to capture a type of time-varying volatility. It is defined by the equation ๐‘Ž๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘ก = ๐œŽ๐œŽ๐‘ก๐‘ก ๐œ€๐œ€๐‘ก๐‘ก, ๐œŽ๐œŽ๐‘ก๐‘ก2 = ๐›ผ๐›ผ0 + ๐›ผ๐›ผ1 ๐‘Ž๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘กโˆ’12, where ๐œ€๐œ€๐‘ก๐‘ก is a white noise error term with mean 0 and variance 1.

Let's go through each of the statements:

a. mean ๐ธ๐ธ(๐‘Ž๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘ก) = 0: This is true. The expected value of ๐‘Ž๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘ก is 0 because it is the product of ๐œŽ๐œŽ๐‘ก๐‘ก and ๐œ€๐œ€๐‘ก๐‘ก, and ๐œ€๐œ€๐‘ก๐‘ก has a mean of 0.

b. variance ๐‘‰๐‘‰๐‘Ž๐‘Ž๐‘Ÿ๐‘Ÿ(๐‘Ž๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘ก) = ๐›ผ๐›ผ0/(1 โˆ’ ๐›ผ๐›ผ1) if 0 < ๐›ผ๐›ผ1 < 1: This is also true. The variance of ๐‘Ž๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘ก is given by this formula under the condition that 0 < ๐›ผ๐›ผ1 < 1.

c. generates heavy tails under some parameter conditions: This is true. The ARCH model can generate heavy-tailed distributions, which are often observed in financial return data.

d. generates asymmetry between positive and negative prior returns: This is not true. The ARCH model does not generate asymmetry between positive and negative returns. This is a characteristic of the GARCH model with an added leverage effect, not the ARCH model. Therefore, the correct answer is d.

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