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A fair die is rolled 12 times. Consider the following four possible outcomes:(i) 5 2 6 3 2 1 4 1 6 5 3 4(ii) 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6(iii) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6(iv) 1 5 4 3 5 1 2 4 4 6 4 5Which of the following is the most likely outcome: (i), (ii), (iii), (iv)? (i) because number of die outcomes (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) is equal but in a random order. (ii) because the number of die outcomes (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) is equal. (iii) because the number 6 is just as likely as any other number on a die. (iv) because you won’t necessarily get the same number of of die outcomes (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) with a fair die. They are all equally likely.

Question

A fair die is rolled 12 times. Consider the following four possible outcomes:(i) 5 2 6 3 2 1 4 1 6 5 3 4(ii) 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6(iii) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6(iv) 1 5 4 3 5 1 2 4 4 6 4 5Which of the following is the most likely outcome: (i), (ii), (iii), (iv)? (i) because number of die outcomes (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) is equal but in a random order. (ii) because the number of die outcomes (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) is equal. (iii) because the number 6 is just as likely as any other number on a die. (iv) because you won’t necessarily get the same number of of die outcomes (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) with a fair die. They are all equally likely.

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Solution

The question is asking which of the four outcomes is the most likely when a fair die is rolled 12 times.

A fair die has six faces, each with an equal probability of being rolled. Therefore, each individual roll is independent and has a 1/6 chance of landing on any given number (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6).

(i) This outcome has each number from 1 to 6 appearing twice, but in a random order. The probability of this specific sequence occurring is (1/6)^12, because each roll is independent.

(ii) This outcome also has each number from 1 to 6 appearing twice, but in a specific order. The probability of this specific sequence occurring is also (1/6)^12, for the same reason as above.

(iii) This outcome has the number 6 appearing 12 times in a row. The probability of this specific sequence occurring is also (1/6)^12, because each roll is independent.

(iv) This outcome has the numbers 1 to 6 appearing a different number of times, in a random order. The probability of this specific sequence occurring is also (1/6)^12, for the same reason as above.

Therefore, all four outcomes are equally likely, because the probability of each specific sequence occurring is the same.

This problem has been solved

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