The following two charts display the relationship between the unemployment rateand (CPI) inflation for the US, separated into two different historical periods:The third figure charts econometric estimates of the US Phillips curve coefficientfor the period 1981-2018:Macroeconomic Analysis (ECON7074) Page 2 of 3(The first two charts are lifted from “Can the Phillips Curve Help Forecast Infla-tion?” by Kevin Lansing (FRBSF Economic Letter, 2002); the third chart is takenfrom “Prospects for inflation in a high pressure economy: Is the Phillips curve dead oris it just hibernating?” by Peter Hooper, Frederic Mishkin, and Amir Sufi (Researchin Economics, Vol 74, Issue 1, March, 26-62.)a) Briefly interpret these graphs. (4 points)b) Give some possible sensible explanations, or reasons, why the slope of the re-gression line in figure 1 is steeper than the slope of the regression line in figure2 and why the Phillips curve coefficient in figure 3 has fallen (in absolute terms)since its low in 1995. (8 points)c) What does the Australian Phillips curve look like and how does it compareto the US experience? (You will have to do a little independent research. Agood place to start looking for research on this topic is the Reserve Bank ofAustralia.) (4 points)
Question
The following two charts display the relationship between the unemployment rateand (CPI) inflation for the US, separated into two different historical periods:The third figure charts econometric estimates of the US Phillips curve coefficientfor the period 1981-2018:Macroeconomic Analysis (ECON7074) Page 2 of 3(The first two charts are lifted from “Can the Phillips Curve Help Forecast Infla-tion?” by Kevin Lansing (FRBSF Economic Letter, 2002); the third chart is takenfrom “Prospects for inflation in a high pressure economy: Is the Phillips curve dead oris it just hibernating?” by Peter Hooper, Frederic Mishkin, and Amir Sufi (Researchin Economics, Vol 74, Issue 1, March, 26-62.)a) Briefly interpret these graphs. (4 points)b) Give some possible sensible explanations, or reasons, why the slope of the re-gression line in figure 1 is steeper than the slope of the regression line in figure2 and why the Phillips curve coefficient in figure 3 has fallen (in absolute terms)since its low in 1995. (8 points)c) What does the Australian Phillips curve look like and how does it compareto the US experience? (You will have to do a little independent research. Agood place to start looking for research on this topic is the Reserve Bank ofAustralia.) (4 points)
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