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If the expected path of 1-year interest rates over the next four years is 5 percent, 4 percent,2 percent, and 1 percent, then the expectations theory predicts that today's interest rate on thefour-year bond isA) 1 percent.B) 2 percent.C) 3 percent.D) 4 percent

Question

If the expected path of 1-year interest rates over the next four years is 5 percent, 4 percent,2 percent, and 1 percent, then the expectations theory predicts that today's interest rate on thefour-year bond isA) 1 percent.B) 2 percent.C) 3 percent.D) 4 percent

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Solution

The Expectations Theory, also known as the Pure Expectations Theory, asserts that long-term interest rates are geometric averages of expected future short-term rates.

To calculate the interest rate on a four-year bond using the Expectations Theory, you would average the expected interest rates over the next four years.

Here's how you do it:

  1. Add up the expected interest rates: 5% + 4% + 2% + 1% = 12%
  2. Divide the sum by the number of years: 12% / 4 years = 3%

So, according to the Expectations Theory, today's interest rate on the four-year bond would be 3%. Therefore, the answer is C) 3 percent.

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