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The P/E ratio for Tesla is 94. The market capitalization for Tesla is 787 billion dollars. The investor expects to earn 10 per cent per year on the investment into Tesla shares. Using the discounted cash flow model, what should be a minimum yearly increase in Tesla’s future net earnings (hold them equal to the operating cash flows) to justify the valuation of Tesla for the investor?A7%B6%C9%D10%E8%

Question

The P/E ratio for Tesla is 94. The market capitalization for Tesla is 787 billion dollars. The investor expects to earn 10 per cent per year on the investment into Tesla shares. Using the discounted cash flow model, what should be a minimum yearly increase in Tesla’s future net earnings (hold them equal to the operating cash flows) to justify the valuation of Tesla for the investor?A7%B6%C9%D10%E8%

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Solution

Para resolver esta pregunta, utilizaremos el modelo de flujo de caja descontado (DCF) y la relación precio-beneficio (P/E). Aquí están los pasos detallados:

  1. Entender la relación P/E:

    • La relación P/E es 94. Esto significa que el precio de las acciones es 94 veces las ganancias netas por acción.
  2. Calcular las ganancias netas actuales:

    • La capitalización de mercado es de 787 mil millones de dólares.
    • Usando la relación P/E, podemos calcular las ganancias netas actuales (E) de Tesla: E=Capitalizacioˊn de mercadoP/E E = \frac{\text{Capitalización de mercado}}{\text{P/E}} E=787 mil millones94 E = \frac{787 \text{ mil millones}}{94} E8.372 mil millones de doˊlares E \approx 8.372 \text{ mil millones de dólares}
  3. Determinar el rendimiento esperado del inversor:

    • El inversor espera ganar un 10% anual sobre su inversión.
  4. Aplicar el modelo de flujo de caja descontado (DCF):

    • El valor actual de Tesla (capitalización de mercado) debe ser igual al valor presente de los flujos de caja futuros esperados.
    • Si asumimos que las ganancias netas son iguales a los flujos de caja operativos, necesitamos encontrar la tasa de crecimiento anual (g) que justifique la valoración actual.
  5. Fórmula del valor presente de una perpetuidad creciente:

    • La fórmula del valor presente de una perpetuidad creciente es: Valor actual=Erg \text{Valor actual} = \frac{E}{r - g} donde r r es la tasa de descuento (10% o 0.10) y g g es la tasa de crecimiento anual de las ganancias netas.
  6. Resolver para g g :

    • Reorganizamos la fórmula para resolver g g : 787 mil millones=8.372 mil millones0.10g 787 \text{ mil millones} = \frac{8.372 \text{ mil millones}}{0.10 - g} 787=8.3720.10g 787 = \frac{8.372}{0.10 - g} 787(0.10g)=8.372 787 (0.10 - g) = 8.372 78.7787g=8.372 78.7 - 787g = 8.372 78.78.372=787g 78.7 - 8.372 = 787g 70.328=787g 70.328 = 787g g=70.328787 g = \frac{70.328}{787} g0.0894 o 8.94% g \approx 0.0894 \text{ o } 8.94\%

Por lo tanto, la tasa mínima de crecimiento anual de las ganancias netas de Tesla para justificar la valoración actual para el inversor es aproximadamente 8.94%. La opción más cercana es la opción E, 8%.

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