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A group of marketing students at a large university wants to determine the proportion of first year students who use certain types of social media. The students want their estimate to be within 0.03 of the true proportion with a 95% level of confidence. Two years ago, a similar study determined the proportion to be 0.796. How large of a sample is required?

Question

A group of marketing students at a large university wants to determine the proportion of first year students who use certain types of social media. The students want their estimate to be within 0.03 of the true proportion with a 95% level of confidence. Two years ago, a similar study determined the proportion to be 0.796. How large of a sample is required?

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Solution

To determine the required sample size, we can use the formula for the sample size of a proportion:

n=(Z2p(1p)E2) n = \left( \frac{Z^2 \cdot p \cdot (1 - p)}{E^2} \right)

where:

  • n n is the sample size,
  • Z Z is the Z-value (the number of standard deviations from the mean) corresponding to the desired confidence level,
  • p p is the estimated proportion,
  • E E is the margin of error.

Given:

  • The desired margin of error E E is 0.03,
  • The confidence level is 95%, which corresponds to a Z-value of approximately 1.96,
  • The estimated proportion p p from the previous study is 0.796.

Plugging these values into the formula:

n=((1.96)20.796(10.796)(0.03)2) n = \left( \frac{(1.96)^2 \cdot 0.796 \cdot (1 - 0.796)}{(0.03)^2} \right)

First, calculate the numerator:

(1.96)2=3.8416 (1.96)^2 = 3.8416 0.796(10.796)=0.7960.204=0.162384 0.796 \cdot (1 - 0.796) = 0.796 \cdot 0.204 = 0.162384 3.84160.162384=0.6238393344 3.8416 \cdot 0.162384 = 0.6238393344

Next, calculate the denominator:

(0.03)2=0.0009 (0.03)^2 = 0.0009

Now, divide the numerator by the denominator:

n=0.62383933440.0009693.155 n = \frac{0.6238393344}{0.0009} \approx 693.155

Since the sample size must be a whole number, we round up to the next whole number:

n694 n \approx 694

Therefore, a sample size of 694 is required to estimate the proportion of first-year students who use certain types of social media within 0.03 of the true proportion with a 95% level of confidence.

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