Consider the following two alternative definitions of a recession:(1) A period of negative output growth and (2) A period when the output level is below the country’s potential level.Now consider a country that has been producing a lot of oil, and whose oil wells have suddenly run out. This results in both its potential and actual output falling.Which of the following statements are correct?Select the two correct answersGroup of answer choicesAccording to the second definition, the country may not be in a recession.The policymaker using the first definition may underreact to the slowing outputAccording to the first definition, the country is now unambiguously in a recession.According to the second definition, the country’s actual output is unambiguously below its potential output
Question
Consider the following two alternative definitions of a recession:(1) A period of negative output growth and (2) A period when the output level is below the country’s potential level.Now consider a country that has been producing a lot of oil, and whose oil wells have suddenly run out. This results in both its potential and actual output falling.Which of the following statements are correct?Select the two correct answersGroup of answer choicesAccording to the second definition, the country may not be in a recession.The policymaker using the first definition may underreact to the slowing outputAccording to the first definition, the country is now unambiguously in a recession.According to the second definition, the country’s actual output is unambiguously below its potential output
Solution
The two correct answers are:
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According to the second definition, the country may not be in a recession. This is because the potential output of the country has also fallen due to the exhaustion of oil wells. If the actual output has fallen at the same rate as the potential output, the country may not be in a recession according to this definition.
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The policymaker using the first definition may underreact to the slowing output. This is because the first definition only considers a period of negative output growth as a recession. If the output is slowing but not yet negative, the policymaker may not consider it as a recession and may underreact to the situation.
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