Transform the following ARMA(1,1) model into a MA(โ) model. What is the requiredcondition on the parameters ๐๐ and ๐๐ for the transformation to work? (8 points)๐๐๐ก๐ก = ๐๐๐๐๐ก๐กโ1 + ๐๐๐ก๐ก + ๐๐๐๐๐ก๐กโ1.
Question
Transform the following ARMA(1,1) model into a MA(โ) model. What is the requiredcondition on the parameters ๐๐ and ๐๐ for the transformation to work? (8 points)๐๐๐ก๐ก = ๐๐๐๐๐ก๐กโ1 + ๐๐๐ก๐ก + ๐๐๐๐๐ก๐กโ1.
Solution
The ARMA(1,1) model is given by:
rt = ฯrt-1 + at + ฮธat-1
We want to transform this into a MA(โ) model. The MA(โ) model is a moving average model of infinite order, which can be represented as:
rt = ฮฃ (ฯi * at-i) from i=0 to โ
Step 1: Substitute the AR part of the ARMA model into the model itself iteratively.
rt = ฯrt-1 + at + ฮธat-1 = ฯ(ฯrt-2 + at-1 + ฮธat-2) + at + ฮธat-1 = ฯ^2rt-2 + ฯat-1 + ฯฮธat-2 + at + ฮธat-1 = ฯ^3rt-3 + ฯ^2at-2 + ฯ^2ฮธat-3 + ฯat-1 + ฯฮธat-2 + at + ฮธat-1 = ...
Step 2: Continue this process indefinitely.
rt = ฮฃ (ฯ^i * at-i) + ฮฃ (ฯ^(i-1) * ฮธ * at-i) from i=1 to โ
Step 3: Combine the two summations.
rt = ฮฃ [ฯ^i * at-i + ฯ^(i-1) * ฮธ * at-i] from i=1 to โ
Step 4: Recognize this as a MA(โ) model.
rt = ฮฃ (ฯi * at-i) from i=0 to โ
where ฯi = ฯ^i + ฯ^(i-1) * ฮธ
The required condition on the parameters ฯ and ฮธ for the transformation to work is that the absolute value of ฯ is less than 1. This is because for the infinite series to converge (which is necessary for the model to make sense), the terms ฯ^i * at-i and ฯ^(i-1) * ฮธ * at-i must get smaller and smaller as i increases. This will only happen if -1 < ฯ < 1.
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