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Shen is playing a game of chance in which he rolls a number cube with sides numbered from 1 to 6. The number cube is fair, so a side is rolled at random.This game is this: Shen rolls the number cube once. He wins $1 if a 1 is rolled, $2 if a 2 is rolled, and $3 if a 3 is rolled. He loses $2.50 if a 4, 5, or 6 is rolled.(a) Find the expected value of playing the game.dollars(b) What can Shen expect in the long run, after playing the game many times?Shen can expect to gain money.Hecanexpecttowindollarsperroll.Shen can expect to lose money.Hecanexpecttolosedollarsperroll.Shen can expect to break even (neither gain nor lose money).

Question

Shen is playing a game of chance in which he rolls a number cube with sides numbered from 1 to 6. The number cube is fair, so a side is rolled at random.This game is this: Shen rolls the number cube once. He wins 1ifa1isrolled,1 if a 1 is rolled, 2 if a 2 is rolled, and 3ifa3isrolled.Heloses3 if a 3 is rolled. He loses 2.50 if a 4, 5, or 6 is rolled.(a) Find the expected value of playing the game.dollars(b) What can Shen expect in the long run, after playing the game many times?Shen can expect to gain money.Hecanexpecttowindollarsperroll.Shen can expect to lose money.Hecanexpecttolosedollarsperroll.Shen can expect to break even (neither gain nor lose money).

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Solution

(a) To find the expected value of playing the game, we need to multiply each outcome by its probability and then add those values together.

The probability of rolling a 1, 2, or 3 on a fair six-sided die is 1/6 for each number. The probability of rolling a 4, 5, or 6 is also 1/6 for each number.

So, the expected value (E) can be calculated as follows:

E = (1/6)1+(1/6)1 + (1/6)*2 + (1/6)3(1/6)3 - (1/6)*2.50 - (1/6)*2.50(1/6)2.50 - (1/6)*2.50 E = 0.167+0.167 + 0.333 + 0.500.50 - 0.417 - 0.4170.417 - 0.417 E = 11 - 1.25 E = -$0.25

So, the expected value of playing the game is -$0.25.

(b) In the long run, after playing the game many times, Shen can expect to lose money. On average, he can expect to lose $0.25 per roll. This is because the expected value is negative, which indicates a loss over time.

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