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There is a pack of four cards numbered 1 to 4. There is also a coin with one side marked as heads and the other tails.As a trial of an experiment, a card was drawn and the coin was flipped. The number 1 to 4 of the card and the side H for heads and T for tails of the coin from the flip were recorded.Here is a summary of the data from 550 trials.Outcome 1H 2H 3H 4H 1T 2T 3T 4TNumber of trials 73 73 66 65 69 74 66 64Answer each part.(a) Assuming the card was chosen at random and the coin is fair, find the theoretical probability of this event: both drawing the 2, 3, or 4 card and flipping heads, in a single trial. Round your answer to the nearest thousandth.(b) Use the data to find the experimental probability of this event: both drawing the 2, 3, or 4 card and flipping heads, in a single trial. Round your answer to the nearest thousandth.(c) Choose the statement that is true.With a large number of trials, there must be no difference between the experimental and theoretical probabilities.With a large number of trials, there might be a difference between the experimental and theoretical probabilities, but the difference should be small.With a large number of trials, there must be a large difference between the experimental and theoretical probabilities.

Question

There is a pack of four cards numbered 1 to 4. There is also a coin with one side marked as heads and the other tails.As a trial of an experiment, a card was drawn and the coin was flipped. The number 1 to 4 of the card and the side H for heads and T for tails of the coin from the flip were recorded.Here is a summary of the data from 550 trials.Outcome 1H 2H 3H 4H 1T 2T 3T 4TNumber of trials 73 73 66 65 69 74 66 64Answer each part.(a) Assuming the card was chosen at random and the coin is fair, find the theoretical probability of this event: both drawing the 2, 3, or 4 card and flipping heads, in a single trial. Round your answer to the nearest thousandth.(b) Use the data to find the experimental probability of this event: both drawing the 2, 3, or 4 card and flipping heads, in a single trial. Round your answer to the nearest thousandth.(c) Choose the statement that is true.With a large number of trials, there must be no difference between the experimental and theoretical probabilities.With a large number of trials, there might be a difference between the experimental and theoretical probabilities, but the difference should be small.With a large number of trials, there must be a large difference between the experimental and theoretical probabilities.

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Solution

(a) Para encontrar la probabilidad teórica de sacar una carta 2, 3 o 4 y obtener cara en el lanzamiento de la moneda, primero determinamos la probabilidad de cada evento individual.

  • La probabilidad de sacar una carta específica (2, 3 o 4) de un mazo de 4 cartas es 14 \frac{1}{4} .
  • La probabilidad de obtener cara (H) en un lanzamiento de moneda justa es 12 \frac{1}{2} .

La probabilidad de ambos eventos ocurriendo juntos (sacar una carta 2, 3 o 4 y obtener cara) es el producto de las probabilidades individuales:

P(2H3H4H)=P(2H)+P(3H)+P(4H) P(2H \cup 3H \cup 4H) = P(2H) + P(3H) + P(4H) P(2H)=14×12=18 P(2H) = \frac{1}{4} \times \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{8} P(3H)=14×12=18 P(3H) = \frac{1}{4} \times \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{8} P(4H)=14×12=18 P(4H) = \frac{1}{4} \times \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{8}

Sumamos estas probabilidades:

P(2H3H4H)=18+18+18=38 P(2H \cup 3H \cup 4H) = \frac{1}{8} + \frac{1}{8} + \frac{1}{8} = \frac{3}{8}

Redondeando al milésimo:

P(2H3H4H)=0.375 P(2H \cup 3H \cup 4H) = 0.375

(b) Para encontrar la probabilidad experimental, usamos los datos proporcionados. Sumamos el número de ensayos en los que se obtuvo 2H, 3H o 4H y dividimos por el total de ensayos.

Nuˊmero de ensayos con 2H, 3H o 4H=73+66+65=204 \text{Número de ensayos con 2H, 3H o 4H} = 73 + 66 + 65 = 204 Nuˊmero total de ensayos=550 \text{Número total de ensayos} = 550

La probabilidad experimental es:

Pexp(2H3H4H)=204550 P_{\text{exp}}(2H \cup 3H \cup 4H) = \frac{204}{550}

Redondeando al milésimo:

Pexp(2H3H4H)0.371 P_{\text{exp}}(2H \cup 3H \cup 4H) \approx 0.371

(c) La afirmación verdadera es:

Con un gran número de ensayos, podría haber una diferencia entre las probabilidades experimental y teórica, pero la diferencia debería ser pequeña.

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