Let X be the number of typos on a printed page of your report for the Engineering Statistics course in Spring 2024, with a mean of 5 typos per page. What is the probability that a randomly selected page contains at least one typo?
Question
Let X be the number of typos on a printed page of your report for the Engineering Statistics course in Spring 2024, with a mean of 5 typos per page. What is the probability that a randomly selected page contains at least one typo?
Solution
The problem is a Poisson distribution problem. The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event.
The formula for the Poisson probability is:
P(X=k) = λ^k * e^-λ / k!
where:
- P(X=k) is the probability of k events,
- λ is the average rate (mean) of events per interval,
- e is the base of the natural logarithm (approximately equal to 2.71828),
- k! is the factorial of k.
In this case, we want to find the probability that a randomly selected page contains at least one typo, which is the same as finding the probability that a page does not contain zero typos.
So, we can find the probability of zero typos and subtract it from 1.
Let's calculate the probability of zero typos:
P(X=0) = λ^0 * e^-λ / 0!
Substituting λ with 5 (the mean number of typos per page), we get:
P(X=0) = 5^0 * e^-5 / 0! = 1 * e^-5 / 1 = e^-5 ≈ 0.0067
So, the probability that a randomly selected page contains at least one typo is:
P(X>=1) = 1 - P(X=0) = 1 - 0.0067 = 0.9933
So, there is approximately a 99.33% chance that a randomly selected page will contain at least one typo.
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